TB:" position, momentum and trading bias "
>another explosive rally that a position trader had to just stand aside...
...looking back, two of my charts gave good BUY signals on 27-OCT, Berney - my QQQ = NDX100 chart, and my SPYNDX = 50:50 SPY+QQQ construct chart. On these charts, the mo indicator breaks its DownTrend to the up-side, pulls-back to its old DownTrend on 27-OCT and then takes off.
The entry point for QQQ would have been @ ~121.5 around its 50d EMA area.
But, where would the exit be? I have QQQ 131~133 area as a far-target on my chart, (the upper trading-range channel line is like ~138 or something) and would have bailed out last Friday, +10 bones on QQQ.
The problem I had with this trade was that SPY was not "in sync" with QQQ. SPY is showing an entry point of ~128.5 = 200d EMA area, with an extent being that DownTrend Line at, what? ~133 at best or, the 50d EMA at ~131 more likely. If you make this trade, you're trading against the trend - that intermediate-term DownTrend.
QQQ still has an intact intermediate-term UpTrend and apparent trading range channel, fwiw.
But WTH is the intermediate Trend = trading bias = "shoe" on SnP or, the DOW ?
I'm serious - you tell me, dude - I'm lost (^_^)
Looks like we're just bouncing along sideways or something.
Try another scenario, Berney: roughly connect SPY CLOSEs on 25-JUNE, 10-AUG, and 15-OCT... create a parallel line to this and put it up there at origin CLOSE 16-JULY. What this says is that, "the intermediate-term SnP (market) DownTrend is intact, but wider, with a more gradual down-slope or, rate of decay".
===> we may have to go down from "market" to individual sector charts, Berney, and use each sector's bellwether as our trading vehicle, rather than DIA/SPY.
-Steve |
