Jim, My most likely scenario starts with a meltdown in US stocks, which destroys the only "strong" economy. That will reduce the desire and the ability to take down credit, reducing American purchases of the rest of the world's goods on charge cards, which will make the previous problems in the Third World look like road humps. And, of course, the pretend recovery in Japan disappears overnight.
O.K., that being said, several things go with this type of meltdown. The dollar gets weak, which is a force to support petroleum prices even when their is much weaker demand. Western Europe, which has been mostly sensible and conservative through our Greenspan easy money binge, will not get hit hard, if at all. That will help energy prices. So, it is a bad scenario for energy, but much worse for most other products. I own and will own select energy cos. with a small portion of my portfolio, but the focus has to be safe, maximum income plays and long puts in
the 90/10.
The any day part is when it could happen. I have no idea when the bubble will burst and it has gone on much longer than I expected. I think I keep giving the herd credit for at least minimal common sense, and that has been a false hope. <g> |
