OUCH!
As if to make up for the success of the first one, my second MOSSTEBOFS test is getting creamed. I already bailed out of the QCOM part and bought in at market for fear of missing a post-earnings run (please god, let the numbers be good, we'll be good too, we promise, please please). But I added SEBL to the test to make up for it. This morning I was toying with the idea of throwing the towel in on the whole experiment, to avoid even further missed opportunities if current trends continue. I posed the question to StockHawk privately, and he suggested I pose it publicly. I would be interested in hearing people's opinions, but reserve the right to hang tough or chicken out as I see fit, keeping domestic harmony and other considerations firmly in mind (purchases are in wife's account).
tekboy@InotDaMan.com
StockHawk's thoughts are as follows:
Not to assume even for an instant that I have any special insights, but in the interest of trying to learn together through these tests I offer the following opinions:
As I said yesterday, buying a stock right before an earnings release is high risk. In this market high tech companies often make a pre-earnings run. After earnings are announced companies missing, meeting or even not beating expectations enough - or without enough up statements about the future - often sell off. Then there are the JDSU's that run up before earnings and jump up after a positive report.
I think your biggest risk - short term - is missing QCOM. It could jump with a positive report and a possible split announcement. I would buy it now and risk a sell-off. With GMST it is a coin toss, but volume has been relatively low on this last run up, so there is a significant possibility of a correction. I would probably hold off.
As to JDSU its 200 day moving average is about $79. It is more than 100% over that which often signals "the need" for a pullback. It is also 50% above its 50 day, so clearly it is extended. Does not guarantee that the run will not continue unabated, but I think that is unlikely. I would wait.
CSCO has traded below your start price, but not down to your buy price. I would wait on CSCO.
I hope this helps you. As with the last test, I am rooting for you. |
