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Technology Stocks : Baltimore Technologies ( BALT)

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To: Tom Drolet who wrote ()11/2/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: conor00  Read Replies (3) of 66
 
Calypso and Tom

Silicon investor should pay you comission because I have joined S. I. stocktalk and this thread seeing you maintain such a high quality discussion on BALT.

My views:

BALT is a potential "Gorilla" stock in this sector.I am also keeping an eye on verisign.Have you seen their Nov. 2 press release?Apparently Verisign and eccelerate are cooperating to enable online digicerts for the business to business security market.Will BALT or Verisign {or Entrust/a.n.other}dominate this market?

BALT valuation is not based on any kind of fundemental valuation measures which we are used to on this side of the atlantic{I'm in ireland}I have tried to understand the mindset of American investors who are prepared to continue buying stocks at "exuberant" {irrational?} levels.Apparently investors take the sales figures ,assume a "normal" pre tax profit % to arrive at an assumed "normal" eps,and use a 10% discount rate to calculate a current valuation.They subtract this current val. from the mkt. cap. giving a remainder which is the future growth value{f.g.v.}.Based on the assumed "normal" eps,and a discount rate the investor calculates the growth rate in assumed "normal" earnings necessary to equal the f.g.v.If this growth rate is sensible the stock is a buy.However I am not sure what would be an appropriate sales figure , normal pre tax profit % ,or discount rate for BALT.Can you help?

When is a stock like BALT a sell?According to Murphy{ctsl}when the pgf equals the growth rate in revenues the stock is a sell.I know BALT intend to spend a proportion of the rights proceeds on R&D but I do not know what the figure will be on a per share basis.Do you know?

I'd be happy to hear your views on the above.

I bought BALT as zergo and then bought more as BALT.Fran Rooney is highly regarded here in Ireland and it seems U.S. investors like him also.



Conor00
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