Rob:
On the private threads I told you that I shorted shares today around $40. I told you that if the stock went up through $41 I would cover the short and take the loss. I did not set a downside target thus I did not reference one on my private message to you.
I do not understand why you take private messages public. You asked me to tell you what I was doing so that you could use this information as a contrary indicator. May I ask you then why when I told you that I had purchased well over 100,000 shares around the $25 area, shortly after the failed secondary, you chose to hold your position? I contacted you via the private threads as a courtesy Rob. In the future I would appreciate you returning my private messages in like fashion.
One of the problems that has beset this thread is that everyone, in holding but one stock, and one stock only, CKFR, some employing the use of margin to maintain their positions, are taking risks that emulate Bob Gintel. Bob Gintel is a seasoned veteran very much so able to trade this security and, able to withstand downsides if they occur. His sytle of investment is not for the weak of heart and in some cases, could wipe out an average investor like those that are found on this thread. I harbor no negative statements or feelings for Bob but let's face it, there are no other Bob Gintel's on this thread, not even myself even when my clients held more than 300,000 shares of CKFR.
What you will find of individuals and entities who register their holdings with the SEC under 13-D or 13-G status is that when a hedge fund, or other speculative entity, wants to short a large position, they contact the 13-D or 13-G filer. What a wonderful thing. I would love to know when someone wanted to short a stock I owned a sizeable position in. Actually, I would prefer to know when that individual or entity is covering. That is the day I would buy. There is nothing improper about actions of this nature, it just comes with the size of the position. I admire you Bob and have enjoyed your words, both positive and negative. What I am afreaid of is that too many people on this thread are trying to be like you. You can handle the downside, they cannot.
Rob, the further I get into my analysis of CKFR the more I believe this stock is treading water. They are going to lose additional customers this quarter and in future quarters, incur additional fixed and incremental expenses, bring on new customers that produce little to no revenues and come closer by one more quarter to inevitably what will be competition.
Today TLindt posted that Spectrum has chosen Just In Time. What is interesting about that decision is that two other companies that provided similar services to other Spectrum banks, as did Just In Time, were excluded. Just In Time uses INTF for its presentment side. As I better understood the industry it became apparent to me that CKFR might have built a better back end in Genesis but the front end was done equally as well by others. What also became apparent was the plethora of information that the banks were able to deliver from their mainframes which CKFR did not possess.
Robert Sloan has said many times, make it look like my checkbook. The only sources of information that can produce a template of this nature is the banks and it appears that this inherent knowledge and information will prove to be king. It does not appear as if the banks will be willing to share this information. In addition, the banks have very good reason to protect their check payors at any cost. The checking account deposit is most important to banks under the current regulatory framework. If they lose these deposit oriented dollars they are in trouble. If there is anywhere where CKFR can do damage it is through the on-line brokerage firms but let's face it, the whole financial infrastructure of this country will change dramatically as Glass-Steagel disappears. There will be more mega mergers and the lines that differentiate the financial services industry will disappear.
Continued bank consolidation makes it even more advantageous for groups like Spectrum to form. Although I did not agree with Gary Craft's style he did have a point with respect to what middleware software could accomplish. This industry will provide tremendous growth over the coming two to three years. Companies that are able to deliver information over the web from legacy-based storage systems are going tomake alot of money, just like a razor blade salesperson, one message at a time.
If CKFR is unable to build its business model through the portals all is not lost. They have a back end engine that is worth a few bucks with several subsidiaries that could be sold off to reduce the price of whatever takeover price a buyer paid. But let's face it, CKFR really has never made any money. Their biggest gain came from buying thier own stock back. Imagine that, they made more buying their own stock than they have put to the bottom line. I do not see that changing for two or more years and the 5 million mark is questionable at best.
I hope CKFR does well, all on this thread, both those that post and those who simply read, all retire rich and my comments are blasted to kingdom come. That would be my first choice. However I just do not see it. I feel the same way as I did last August. I hope I am wrong. |
