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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices

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To: baystock who wrote (2300)	11/2/1999 11:14:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) of 8010

<<I do research my own investments in general.>> I have noticed in many of your post that you do. But maybe you do it only on stocks you like. Could there be a little prejudice against BAY here. <<But I rely on publically available info, But I prefer to avoid stocks where the info is not easily available such as is the case of BAY.>> Information on BAY is public and easily obtainable. Click below and read this PR as well as all others: cornerbay.com <<I am not willing to take these risks except with gambling money. >> I can understand that. Neither do I. And one of the difficult task we, as investors, must take, is to evaluate risks. <<But at present I prefer to put my gambling money in Internet/High Tech stocks. >> I can understand that as well... at least until this bubble explode. <<As for my mining "investment" money, I will stick with companies with proven deposits and production experience like DROOY for gold and SSC for silver. >> I like DROOY... but only if gold rises...if gold goes belwo $200 DROOY is in big trouble. My favorite gold pick will have no problem whatsoever with a price of $200 if only for a temporary drop in its share price. Cause it is an exploration company that is getting ready for the next cycle. My other gold choices are bringing new mine into production with costs below $150. But DROOY, Harmony and GoldFIleds are excellent producers...they will really explode if gold gets back on a bull move. The big question is: "Is gold ready for the bull?". <<Sure SSC is more expensive, but there is almost no downside risk at the current price. >> I disagree...If I am not mistaking... they have a large debt which come due next March. How will they finance this... maybe you have the answer.. Are their current producing mine profitable ?? Not by a lot if they are. Pirquitas is as you said a great proven deposit.. I like it a lot. But I am not sure if SSC will be able to bring it to production. Time will tell. << The upside with SSC is just as much if not more than for BAY >> I disagree... If Silver stays near $5 SSC goes nowhere. If silver goes to $4, SSC is in big trouble. But BAY is likely to explode in price even if silver stays at $5 and will still come into production and be very profitable if silver goes to $4. <<The upside with SSC is just as much if not more than for BAY, since they can take their project into production rather than having to sell out.>> BAY can bring Alamo to production as well. Their management is very capable of it. But if it is taken over, then we will make a quick $$ and move to the next best silver play around at the time. >>With BAY on the other hand the price could go back to 50 cents if there turns out to be problems with the metalurgy. >> I think it would go back below 50 cents if they end up with these problems. But that is part of assessing the risks. Our job is to learn about the property and established a risk of this happening and then take an informed decision. I've done this and estimate that the odds are very high that they will have a good combination of recovery rates/CAPEX making the mine extremely profitable. If you want we can discuss this issue. <<In my mind the risk to reward is much better with SSC.>> I have evaluate SSC way before they reverse split because I like very much the prospect of Pirquitas. But decided to stay away for now because of the problems I mentioned. Maybe in a few months I'll changed my mind.... and join you. Time will tell.

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