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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (69964)	11/3/1999 10:23:00 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (2) of 132070

MB, Some thoughts this morning. (babble) Generally the juniors have been in a bear market for a while now, but a portion of the market has become over priced. This over priced part of the market is causing a few folks to worry about a "swift" downturn and could drag the juniors to even lower prices. I believe AG and company has a plan to make this downturn as soft a landing as possible if and when it happens. I don't know if their plan will work, but they will execute some process to try and cause a lesser effect that we experienced in 1929. It is my opinion, the western capitalists will do everything in their power to stop an extended depressionary period. Some issues in todays economics is that the world depends on the US to continue buying products. Why would the countries that depend on the US purchasing their goods and services rock the boat? They would just shoot themselves in the foot. What these countries can do is to try and keep their assets from becoming as over priced as ours, but they need the American consumer to continue borrowing and spending. It looks to me like the only choice they have is to buy our debt to keep interest rates from getting out hand to maintain the consumer purchases at as high levels as possible. What are AG's plans and will they work? Is the rest of the world ready to get along without the American consumer? Can the rest of the world replace the American consumer with "other" consumers? Another point is we are seeing our politicians doing everything in their power to keep this economy going and the question on this front is what do they have left in their bag of tricks to keep it going? As we all know this dislocation can keep on going for a while and in my opinion our politicians and the rest of the world will do what it takes keep the American consumer buying as long as they can. I also assume the rest of the world will keep their own assets from getting out of hand. Where is the balance on this front? We have massive motivation by folks to keep this thing going and they will continue using their power until it just can not be pushed any further. These people in power have been very successful so far. How long can they keep it going? What is the breaking point? Joan

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