Haim, these would support your slowing growth / stagflation argument:
<<NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) non-manufacturing index, which slipped slightly in October, offered some signs that price pressures and growth may have peaked in the non-manufacturing sector, a NAPM official said.
In a teleconference with reporters, Ralph Kauffman, chairman of the NAPM's non-manufacturing survey committee, said comments offered by NAPM members participating in the survey ``gave some indication that, perhaps, we have seen the peak' in pricing pressures.
But Kauffman said there were ``still a lot of price pressures out there.' He said much of that pressure has come from some of the basic commodities, for example, from oil and products made from oil. Price increases for those products have moderated a bit, said Kauffman.>>
biz.yahoo.com
and
<<Fed sees some slowing in strong U.S. economy
WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday consumer spending and borrowing have showed signs of softening recently amid a generally robust U.S. economy.
In its latest Beige Book survey of the domestic economy, based on data collected between Sept. 14 and Oct. 25, the Fed said labor markets remain tight and pressure on wages was rising but it saw few signs of a general pick-up in prices.
``Most districts continue to report strong economic growth but some slowing is noted,' said the Beige Book summary that will be used by the Fed's policysetting Federal Open Market Committee when it meets on Nov. 16 to consider interest-rate strategy.>>
biz.yahoo.com
In addition, the performance of the retail stocks and consumer confidence numbers would support your thesis. Assuming that the growth rates are slowing (even without the Fed having done its job earlier) a question for you - in the past isn't this the most vulnerable time for a crash as people realize that the economy IS (or MIGHT BE in the case of Fed increase) slowing? OR, have we become SO divorced from fundamentals that it just doesn't matter? |
