Interest rate rise will trigger market crash / correction Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Interest rate rise will trigger market crash / correction

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To: DanZ who wrote (34)	4/12/1997 6:36:00 PM
From: Acey	of 52

Dan, I have only been reading this thread over the past few weeks and have not actually participated in it yet. However, you should respect any forecast that predicts a major downfall is coming (or is in the works). Your short term technical patterns may appear hunky dory, but the indicators I follow are clearly bearish. THIS IS A BEAR MARKET. Although its really impossible to predict, things will most likely get alot worse before they get better. ALl the things you state in your post may be true. However, you failed to mention that the market is priced at historically high levels, and with interest rates at 7.16%, people are REVALUING STOCKS. Interest rates are trending upwards. Daily new lows on the big board are expanding. Do you know you can get a 6% yield on a risk free 1-year bond now. You can get 6.85% on a five year bond. Many investors will scurry away from volatile stocks and put their money into safer instruments. In sum, everything you said is worthless. Bull markets have absolutely nothing to do with earnings, inflation, etc. After all is said and done, what moves markets is the faucet of money coming into the market. It's just supply and demand. I myself have no long term predictions on the market, mainly because I think its impossible to do so. But the new direction of the market is not something to dismiss as a correction. Dow 5000? Maybe, maybe not. But your technical patterns won't get you anywhere in this bear market. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PUTTING OFF NEW BUYING FOR THE TIME BEING! Good luck either way, acey

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