>>>>>News now that Camino/Rambus is going to be reality<<<
Workstations including the Intel 840 Carmel chipset are now shipping, as I understand it. Hence, the chasm is crossed since the 840 supports Rambus DRAM. However, the real volume is expected with the Camino chipset 820; apparently, Craig Barrett, Intel CEO, stepped up today and said the Camino will be brought forward in the next 2 weeks. Rambus closed up $18/share today.
Nevertheless, the 820 can also support SDRAM. DRAM manufacturers have halted DRDRAM production and will need to restart the process. I would think the Christmas season has been missed. So I would anticipate Rambus revenues to be much less in the 1st qtr than was expected. Also, the door is open for DDR DRAM and we will have to watch closely how it proceeds, since its evolution will not require royalty payments. Also, any further glitches with Camino, or with DRDRAM in PCs would be poorly tolerated.
Finally, Intel apparently said today that it is moving toward a 1 ghz processor, different from PIII, in 2nd half '2000. The faster the processor, I would think, the greater the need for more capable memory.
As for me, most of my Rambus $$ went into Qualcomm, so I'll just have to put up with missing this first Rambus leg up. My view is to be more cautious, buy on major market dips, expect some revenue disappointments from Rambus in the near future. Right now, I have no position in RMBS.
Apollo |
