Some on this thread in the last couple of days have doubted the size of the potential market for CF for pda's and cellphones. Just thinking aloud, but I see the markets as--
--Cameras (of course); flash-based cameras will replace virtually all cameras in the $100 to $600 price range. Anyone know what the selling rate of these is? Also, figure 2-3 CF's (or Memory Sticks?) per year for any digital camera in use.
--Cell Phones; The market will split into two parts. One will continue to drive to very small devices that will handle voice only, that the user can carry around in a small pocket unnoticed. The second part will be internet/data capable. All of these will need flash. Figure 2-3 CF per this second type of cellphone.
--PDA's; The distinction between PDA's and the second type of cellphone (above) will disappear. PDA's of course will all have removeable flash. PDA growth rate will continue at its present pace, perhaps increasing if wireless internet becomes competitive in price and speed with wireline internet. Figure a couple CF's per PDA in use, per year.
--Laptops; With the growth in PDA's, and the presence of Type II and Type III slots increasingly standard in laptops (I haven't seen one without it recently), CF will be the method of choice for transferring data between PDA's and Laptops. CF/Type III adapters will become standard equipment. Figure a couple of CF's per laptop, in addition to Type II flash memory cards.
--Desktops; The surprise winner in replacing the 1.44 mb floppy disk becomes flash. Since everyone will have CF anyway, for their Cameras or Cell Phones or PDA's or laptops, it will be easy for them to get the peripheral, or buy it installed in the first place, on their desktops. They'll have several CF cards ready at any time, of different sizes, ready for backing up information, taking it home with the laptop, or giving a copy to someone else. Figure another half-dozen CF's per household that has both a desktop and a PDA or second-type cellphone.
I'm sure I've missed some valuable uses. This was just off the top of my head. Any thoughts?
Best,
JS |
