Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (53954)	11/3/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) of 95453

PK---The yield on the long bond has today completed 5 waves down from the 6.40 peak--that implies that a retrace in yield back up is now in store (but will fail) after which the yield will embark on a second 5 wave move down-below the 6.11 low of this first drop.----When this second drop in yields gets into the mid-high 5's, we will THEN run the risk that yields will back up again and this time go higher than the recent 6.40ish. This whole process of putting a s.t bottom in yield could take sveral weeks----As for Friday, my sense is that since the yield is currently at its low at 6.11 for this spike down, we will more likely find the employment data to be too strong and the yield will begin to back up and retrace 50-75% of the 29bp drop from 6.40. There are 2 gaps to be filled, one at 6.243% (47% retrace) and the higher one at 6.316% (72% retrace)-----Bottom line---Since we seem to have already completed the 5 wave sequence down in yield, I would be VERY cautious of an imminent back up in yield starting tomorrow. My 2c fwiw

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