Borb, one yen over 104 is a lot bigger than one yen over 124 so it goes both ways. The fact that the yen is slightly up or down as long as it is within its trading channel should not be taken as a confirmation of anything especially as to the probabilities that will be seeing 20 k by Christmas or any other date. The Nikkei is the best performing market worldwide this year (well I havent calculated it since the NAZ has had lift off clearance...) but nevertheless, no matter how you slice it, it has made some impressive gains without even taking into account the exchange rate... How much more can a person ask? From today`s level, a run to 20k would be another (roughly) 9% gain in less than two months... I am sure W. Buffet would be able to come up with some good qualificative on that one. The N225 (that is what we are discussing here most of the time) will have to deal with some major unwinding of crossheld shares all the while, so let me tell you that if this level(the 18000 level) is ,maintained until Christmas, I will be astounded...
Not trying to make a bear case, just my 2 yen worth...
Best Regards
Stephan
PS Now is perhaps a good time to throw this one in, especially after Ron`s comments on Y2K and Singapore:
Say the "foreign buyers" who have been apparently responsible for the hefty rise in the N225 decide to cash in their chips on the back of a strong yen before the clock hits that faithful moment of truth, and get into the "safest investment around" i.e the T-bills, what would that do to the N225? Now , throw in some major forces in hedges and esoteric games in the same category that would work to keep the yen strong even as this selling of yen assets and drive into US based assets is occurring and would not you say that the "big boys" would have the best of both worlds? Best of all? Make great gains, avoid erosion of your profits through exchange losses and park in some low risk Y2K spot for a while? Can someone scream fire,
sg |
