Russia and China: Technology Meets the Politics of Space
Summary:
The explosion of a second Russian rocket in Kazakstan, while only a
short-term obstacle to Russian space projects, may have important
side effects. It creates an opportunity for Russia to turn to China
for increased cooperation in space, with important technological
ramifications. Strategically, this affords Russia the opportunity
to strengthen a budding alliance with China - while simultaneously
keeping a foothold in Kazakstan.
Analysis:
Russia announced Nov. 3 that it would not demand Kazakstan lift the
ban imposed on launches at the Baikonur launch pad, after the
recent explosion of a Russian rocket there. Russia's decision could
be an indication that it will seek support for its space program
elsewhere.
The loss of the rocket is yet another phase in the continuing decay
of Moscow's space program. Beyond the business of satellite
launches, this incident will help warm broader technological and
political ties between Russia and China. Russia is likely to use
the accident to accelerate bilateral space agreements with China.
The Oct. 27 explosion at Baikonur was the second in less than four
months. Both were caused by a Russian Proton rocket malfunction
shortly after take-off. In the most recent accident, a Russian
communications satellite was atop the booster; the booster's
explosion scattered fragments across the unpopulated region of
northeast Kazakstan. Local worries have arisen over the potential
spill of toxic chemicals before these crashes, triggering concerns
over health and the environment.
The government of Kazakstan has responded forcefully - and
threatened the Russian satellite launch program. In both instances,
local authorities banned any further launches until investigations
are completed. After the first crash, the ban lasted two months and
Russia was forced to pay over $400,000 in compensation, including
the cost of health testing for residents.
Kazakstan will ask for at least as much this time, but Russia has
much lower estimates for appropriate compensation. After initially
refusing financial responsibility, Russian officials decided Nov. 3
that damages were approximately $28,000. It is not clear when
Russia will be able to use this facility again; Russia has not yet
announced how it will accommodate Baikonur launches scheduled for
November and December.
The temporary loss of the launch is likely to motivate Russia to
speed into a new space partnership with China. In September, Russia
and China signed a space cooperation protocol in the areas of
applied space research, long-term programs for piloted research,
fundamental research and elements connected with the creation of
spacecraft, according to the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space
Administration.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov has also hinted that
Russia and China could engage in a joint space station project.
This was followed by an Oct. 18 announcement that Russia would help
China carry out its first manned space flight, scheduled for early
2000. On Oct. 27, the two countries struck a deal on specific
plans for scientific cooperation.
Long-term cooperation between Russia and China could lead to an
important shift in technology between the two nations. Russia's
space program has been experiencing a steady decline in funds and
advancement - while a better-funded Chinese effort ranks as a top
national priority. Russia has 30 years worth of knowledge to share
with China, which has the resources at its disposal. Each also
possesses differing technologies and expertise that can be shared
for mutual advantage.
This is likely to become a concern to the West. Specifically,
Russia is involved in the International Space Station (ISS) project
with the United States and other nations. The United States, in
particular, will likely be wary of cooperation with the Russians
for fear they will share technology with China. If this leads to an
actual dispute, Russia may even break off from the ISS and pursue
its project with China. Alternately, China may have the resources
to revive the Mir station before it's too late.
Russia and China also share an overriding interest in Central Asia,
particularly Kazakstan. Both countries realize the economic and
strategic value of maintaining influence over their mutual
neighbor. Central Asia is rife with Islamic terrorism and its
internal conflicts threaten to brim over into both Russia and
China. Also, Kazakstan contains energy resources, and the pipelines
to transport them, needed by both its large neighbors.
This situation creates both a need and an opportunity for
cooperation between Russia and China. Both nations continue to seek
comfort in cooperation, binding their two weaker powers in an
attempt to balance out the stronger United States.
Increasingly linked space programs will yield benefits at little or
no cost to either nation. In light of the recent impediment caused
by the accidents at Baikonur, the timing is perfect for Russia and
China to accelerate their joint efforts in space.
(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.
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