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Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV
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To: wlcnyc who wrote (7519)11/4/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: Mike Fredericks  Read Replies (1) of 13157
 
The PPV contract is wonderful news. I'd be interested in seeing revenue projections.

Some info: Cox Communications had $41.6 million in pay per view revenue the first 6 months of 1999. They make most of their revenue from big events like boxing matches and WWF events, rather than the $3.00 movies that people can buy.

Figure that Cox will get $83.2 million in PPV revenue this year. Cox is not the only cable company. It serves 6 million customers and is the 5th largest cable company in the nation.

I have no idea how many cable customers there are in the nation, but there are 275 million people, figure 5 to a home = 55 million homes. If Cox has 6 million customers and is only the 5th largest, that means 4 other companies have more than 6 million customers. So at least 30 million households have cable. Say 48 million households have cable. That means that total PPV revenue for the nation is somewhere in the neighborhood of $320 million. Figure that 1/4 of that money is for non-IATV enabled program like hollywood movies that don't have individualization built-in, and the remaining $240 million is IATV-enableable programming, such as fights/wrestling/sports/concerts.

If IATV gets 10% of that $320 million, then that's $32 million per year in revenues. Have no idea how much of that $32 million would be profit.

I'm not taking into consideration the fact that only a few million customers are digital-cable enabled at this point.

So, anyone else want to take a crack at it?

-Mike

(P.S. Keep in mind that we the shareholders need the stock to grow slowly. If the stock jumped 40 points overnight, then the market cap would grow so much and we'd have to pay out so much to the executives that the bottom line would look terrible and we'd probably crash down again. If the stock grows gradually, then the execs get their share over time instead of all at once. They'll end up with same money but it will be spread out.)
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