John - Re: "Hopefully, Intel is still working on keeping it's fixed costs growth well below it's revenue growth (unlike 1997)."
In 1997, Intel was transitioning - rapidly - from a Pentium processor (about 95 sq. mm. in a 0.35 micron process) with a PGA package to the Pentium II - a 203 sq. mm. die on the same 0.35 micron process) with a much more expensive and complex Slot 1 card, containing extra add on SRAM chips for L2 cache.
In retrospect, it is clear how their costs got way out of control.
Today, Intel is transitioning from a 0.25 micron Pentium III - about 130 sq. mm. - still with a Slot 1 cartridge/SRAM module - to a Coppermine - 0.18 micron process - with a die size of only 106 sq. mm. - and the Coppermine contains the SRAM L2 cache on chip!. So, the Slot 1 cartridge is cheaper to produce.
Further, with the embedded SRAM L2 cache on the Coppermine, Intel will aggressively transition BACK to the PGA package - a flip-chip, plastic version - late this year and throughout 2000, FURTHER reducing their costs.
Thus, SHRINKING die sizes, improved yields, and significantly LOWER packaging costs will all contribute to cost reduction throughout this quarter and year 2000.
Paul
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