The increase in unemployment claims reported is bogus. They
revised up the previous reports. If you compare unrevised
numbers, which is what was reported today, the claims
dropped. (But that would be counter-spin, and all that
matters is spin, not substance.)
Isn't there also the wage number, which is probably more
important? I suspect they've increased the estimate for
tomorrow so that the numbers won't look so bad. The analyst
that they interviewed on CNBS inadvertently blurted out the
median consensus estimate of 315,000 which is well above
what CNBS and Reuters have been stating at 287,000.
Thursday November 4, 11:21 am Eastern Time
U.S. jobless claims rose in latest week
WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department
report of initial state jobless benefit claims, seasonally
adjusted.
Week Ended Initial Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Claims
10/30/99 288,000 287,250 Unavailable
10/23/99 280,000-R 293,750-R 2,144,000
10/16/99 292,000-R 299,250-R 2,098,000-R
10/09/99 289,000 294,750 2,172,000-R
REVISIONS:
Initial Claims: Oct 23 from 278,000; Oct 16 from 293,000
Four-Week Average: Oct 23 from 293,500; Oct 16 from 299,500
Continued Claims: Oct 16 from 2,120,000; Oct 9 from 2,184,000
FORECAST:
Reuters survey of economists forecast:
287,000 initial claims in the Oct 30 week. |
