IBM Message Board - Msg: 11813141

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Technology Stocks : IBM

IBM 292.44

-0.8%

Jan 23 9:30 AM EST

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To: lebo who wrote (5877)	11/4/1999 6:01:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (2) of 8220

I read the MS report. Very conservative with a lot of issues already discussed on this thread for a year. some points: --reducing 4Q three cents and FY 2000 fourteen cents. --focused on weakness in the mainframe platform. --suggested a longer recovery. --suggested not all Y2K but because MIPs installed for testing now will be used for capacity stalling IBM shipments --suggested there may be increased PC revenue and an increase in revenue in the OEM technology business. --maintaining their neutral rating. None of this is new news. Goes on to say if IBM trades at its mean PE or PS ratios over the last two years, the shares would be priced in the mid 80s. MS also hedges by advising "Large E-Business driven MIPs demand could cause a snap back earlier in 2000 and we are monitoring this." Bottom line is IBM is in a unique period where growth is affected by many aspects related to Y2K. That is why the focus with the revenue/profit model was modified to incent first half performance and why the blowout numbers for the first quarter, a quarter I might add that MS said was going to be a miss with an IBM pre-warn. So much for their expertise.

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