Heinz, this has been a good day on this thread. And yours is another good post.
<Robert, yes, i believe this is a blow-off. i haven't said 'top'. not yet, anyway<ggg>. >
So you would define a blowoff as a parabolic rise and fall on rising and then falling volume? The dot's behavior in 4/99 being a classic example?
< based on the violence of the move and the
extremely high volume that goes with it. >
Volume certainly has been impressive lately, hasn't it?
<another characteristic that is evident is that it is the most speculative and overvalued sectors that
are driving the bulk of this move. >
I would just like to add a note of 'caution' here regarding fundamentals. The b2b sector is predicted to grow to $1.3 TRILLION by 2002 (or 2003). Can you imagine how large a market cap that kind of market segment can support?? A HECK of a lot larger than the the b2b sector's current valuation! In fact, these sorts of economics are probably what are propping up some of these more speculative sectors during periods of market weakness.
<there are so many stocks that have simply gone parabolic in this latest advance in spite of being at
valuation extremes never before seen in the history of speculating man (and i mean NEVER)>
Dutch tulips in the early 1640s were valued as high as $1,000 a piece in today's dollars, UNADJUSTED for inflation. Adjusted for inflation, I would guess that those bulbs would today be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars a piece. Heck, that makes even a truckload of scmr wallpaper look like a bargain. <g>
< when, and at what level the blow-off will top out i cannot say. in the course of the move there may well be pullbacks that look like the top,
but are actually not it. they should be sharp, swift, and be quickly left behind. the truth is that the top could be in tomorrow, or it could be
in in three months time...that's really impossible to say.>
You should write suspense novels. You make it all sound so exciting! <g>
< i have written a post a few months ago about the possible characteristics of the TOP...i'll see if i can find it, otherwise i'll post my views on
that anew. >
I would be very interested.
Regards, Rob |
