Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (54094)	11/5/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

Bull; MRL has the most leveraged upside to ea. $1000 rise in dayrates to eps I like MRL for their eps leverage to ea. $1K - $5K rise in dayrates & they are THE takeout target still...good balance sheet - strong GOM leverage - they have it all imho. ESV is the mo-mo institutional fav'of late. RDC imho; has the speciality jack ups to be highly leveraged, but the dilution aspect of their stock offering looms as a ceiling - making it a laggard to the above 2; also FLC is more upside leveraged to anyone - on a ultimate eps capacity basis. RIG - is capped by these locked in contracts; but surely a $36-40 stock in mid cycle 2000... but, there could be lots of merger related selling still to come according to some analysts - maybe the gift opp is still to come near year end in RIG ? I like MRL on dips, ESV and FLC for my GOM early recovery exposure; then - NBR & UTI on any weakness for land leverage; NBR is cheaper than UTI - UTI I won't chase here; NBR is reasonable, but not a gift here...but, it may not become a gift - as its on many institutional fav' lists... Actually I think the largest upside % in the nearterm is in E&P and Service stocks versus the drillers... NBL BR UPR OEI - PGO VTS SII. The drillers have held pretty decent here- some service stocks are way, way oversold. PGO a gift - maybe the #1 buy here ? NBL is also so close to its 52 week bottom for a lg cap & has a huge Cap Ex increase coming here... virtually impossible to lose more than 10% here even with $2.40 mcf gas imho w/ NBL; and 50%+ upside is virtually also guaranteed - the #1 risk vs. reward play ? ... and for quick $ - I like SII; getting close to $30 here, it nearly rebounded to $40 after the Oct 8 blow off - the mo-mo fav'. At $30 SII; I sell most everything; maybe just own 33% SII, 33% -PGO/VTS and 33% -NBL/UPR/OEI ... my .02 cents.

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