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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 652.56

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (32462)	11/5/1999 5:48:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Heinz, we had a similar week at the july top, when the spx and the dow were flattish and the nasdaq kept rumbling to new highs. To go with my 5 wave count from the 98 lows on INTC, I now have a very clean count on ORCL. I was fooled on that one and confused wave 5 of 3 for final wave 5. But this last spike up should be the panic buying climax 5. Larry Katz reminded me that the last time the spx had such a major component (25% as it does now with techs) and everybody wanted into it was the oils in 79-80, and that was the top in commodities and rates. Speaking of oils, look at the H&S top on BP Amoco (and the broadening top on xoi for that matter). While there are many similarities to last October's bottom there are many of elements missing, such as some panic selling of the high flying techs. This makes me suspect that we can reproduce a similar rally. Dow made a fib .618 retrace and we have a fib 21 day cycle from the lows bb

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