Hi All,
Lots of Q's on Yahoo as to why were up so much so fast. I see two possibilities:
1) Leaks of a pending announcement.
2) Speculation.
Given that Kinsey, et al. have shown that they aren't one for leaking information, I suspect that the current move is all 2).
Speculation can explain all of this movement. There are statements and hints in the Q2 and Q3 CCs.
First, it has been stated that management is now going to focus on the primary goal of home deployment though Internet as a medium. Many years ago, with the trials of GTE Mainstreet, GEnie, etc. home trials of interactive TV, the potential of a national deployment drove NTN up to double digits, around 10 1/2 as I recall (which was where I sold my stake I picked up at 2 5/8 in 89-90 or so). That potential is awakened again with the current chatter. The same sort of potential drove INNN to 15 before an 11th hour pullout by TCI put them out of business.
Second, there was little or no mention of re-negotiation with AOL for the current level of partnership. This *implies* that they are seeking partnership or merger with AOL or someone the size of AOL for a fuller deployment or their content. It was also said that they are "in talks" with several possible partners, and Stan seemed confident about the eventual outcome.
Now, with this speculation out there, a 20% jump puts NTN on the radar of the Mom Boys, and they drive the thing up even further. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 in the current run before MB's get out of the bulk of their shares. Once the hot money leaves, we'll see where we settle.
BTW, note that I'm saying this is speculation buying, and we really haven't *seen* anything yet. Whether there is a pending announcement or not, I don't have a clue.
That's my 10 cents.
Cheers,
Rich |
