Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 92.72

+5.2%

Nov 24 3:59 PM EST

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To: Mike Sendler who wrote (34038)	11/5/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Mike: RE <<RDRAM penetration, (percentage of DRAM megabyte shipments)is 2% in '99; 22% in '00; 42% in '01; 54% in '02.>> Let's get this straight. 2% in 99. 2 FAB's (Samsung and NEC) were working less than 8 weeks out of 52 weeks or RDRAM. Toshiba was working maybe 6 months on RDRAM for Sony. 2% looks very optimistic. I feel that Semico's estimate's are number lower for RDRAM. I would have to at least average two or three different estimates to get a more accurate estimate for RDRAM penetration. These guys are definitely have rose colored glasses. I believe the entire market for RDRAM is 40-50% of the total RAM market if they conquer all possible markets for RDRAM. They have them achieving 80% of RDRAM's total potential market share within 18-24 months. The value segment of the PC market which I differ with Intel's estimates will continue to grow in total market share. The value segment will not be served significantly by RDRAM until 2002 at the earliest and even later if Taiwan gets it's way with second and third world markets. What has kept Intel in drivers seat is the Celeron microprocessors in markets outside the US, Europe and Japan. I don't believe that the expanding worldwide market for PC's that Intel predicts to develop in next 4 years will will lead to greater market share for Intel microprocessors. Therefore, RDRAM will luxury that a large share of computer users will never get a chance to utilize unless it is the lowest cost of DRAM around. That will be the hardest goal for RMBS to address. Covered my RMBS with DEC 80 Calls. Intel's announcements RE RDRAM and DDR at COMDEX have been emailed to tens of thousands of people in the industry who tell many more people and RMBS's price movement quickly starts to peter out. The question is: Do the shorts start shorting in mass Mon. or wait until after COMDEX. john

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