>>>>>>
Second, without the monopoly, Windows should be at most a $50 retail product, especially the upgrades
which should be a $10 product. How MSFT can maintain the $20 billion rev would indeed require some of
what Bill Gates claims all along - innovation. Unfortunately, MSFT has never been know for innovation.
<<<<<<
Agreed 100% to all.
Let me tell you first a bit of history before trying to answer your question: (dates are approximate)
- circa 1980: MS leverages deal with IBM to become the dominant OS provider with DOS.
- circa 1985: Macintosh becomes the first real threat to DOS. MS states that "Icons are for sissies" while they work double shift to come out with an alternative.
- circa 1989: Windows 3.0 (first viable Windows version) becomes popular. Gates "sees the light" and Windows are now cool.
- circa 1992: MS uses its leverage to drive out of business many Utilities developers. Those utilities are copied, and added to Windows for free.
- circa 1994: MS again uses its command of Windows to integrate several major applications into Office, eventually driving out of business several major applications developers.
- circa 1995: Unix, Internet, and Browsers start being a threat to Windows. Gates proclaims that "Internet will never happen" while working double shift on an alternative.
- circa 1996: MS makes a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Spyglass. (makers of a second rate browser) Then they rename it Explorer and offer it for free, scr**ing Spyglass (the deal called for a % of royalties) and hurting Netscape.
- circa 1997: A much improved Explorer 3.0 comes out, and eventually, puts Netscape out of business. MS suddenly shifts to an Internet-centric policy.
1998: MS releases virtual InterDev, and unfolds ASP, working together with Windows NT servers.
1999: ASP, COM, and Windows NT are finally a viable (and arguably better) alternative to Unix servers and cgi-bin scripts.
What is going to happen now?
IMHO nothing much.
MS is going to fight the DOJ for a while, and then settle in favorable terms (there's no way the DOJ is going to destroy MS)
AAPL, SUNW, AOL, INPR, Red Hat (Unix), etc. will go up Monday. (As will many future potential victims of MSFT)
Eventually (months or years from now) Windows might become free/very cheap (or open platform like Unix) but by that time MS will get most of its revenue from dominating Internet transactions with ASP and COM.
Will MSFT drive the QQQ down Monday?
I think so, but nothing earth shattering, as it will be compensated by gains in other tech stocks.
Also: this Administration knows that the on-going bull market is the best "achievement" they have to show. They won't risk upsetting it in the name of justice.
But what do I know?
theRedDog
PS:
(I'm surprised how well the judge findings correlate with the insider knowledge I have. I believe he got an excellent grasp of the facts)
I have been in the software industry for over a decade, and I have seen MS push its weight around many times hurting many people in the process with less than ethic antics. History eventually will give Gates a place together with Morgan, Rockefeller, an the like.
On the other hand, MS is in a position in which it cannot really be hurt. Any compromise they reach with the DOJ will eventually benefit the company.
Intersting times, indeed! |
