I'd be cautious shorting for too long on Monday. Bears and shorts could get trapped. Still have two days to digest this ruling. Many, many fund managers will need to think about this ruling. Many, many funds and individuals own Microsoft and I doubt that they will all sell on Monday. Sure, it will tank, but like the rest of the economic news, this one will also be shrugged off and the run will continue. But then again, I could lose my shirt this next week. lol !!! That's the gamble I'm taking.
Microsoft stock falls as Wall Street digests blow
NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - A Federal judge's ruling that Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) wields monopoly power in its core business sent shares of the software maker falling as much as 5 percent lower after-hours on Friday and could weigh on the stock for weeks to come.
But analysts and fund managers cautioned that the judge's findings of fact were just one step in an ongoing case and that Microsoft was likely to appeal any negative verdict -- potentially drawing out the case for years.
Following the publication of the ruling late Friday, Microsoft stock fell on electronic trading networks to as low as 86-3/4, down from its regular session close of 91-9/16.
``The stock price is probably going to be hit pretty badly over the next few weeks but it might be a good chance for people to buy in,' said Debra McNeill, a portfolio manager, with the Fremont Growth Fund, a holder of Microsoft stock.
The federal judge presiding over the Microsoft antitrust trial declared the software giant wielded monopoly power in the market for personal computer operating systems.
Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson, in dealing a major legal setback for Microsoft, also found the company will use this power to harm firms that could intensify competition in the PC operating system market, largely siding with the case brought by the U.S. Justice Department and 19 states against Microsoft.
Arnie Owen, an analyst with investment bank Cruttenden Roth said: ``This will be very interesting what kind of reaction we get on Monday. I think there's a lot of digesting that's going to be done this weekend and into next week,' he said.
Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said he believed that the decline in the price of Microsoft, a newly named member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, would weigh down the broader stock market on Monday.
Microsoft, along with computer chip maker Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news), U.S. local telephone operator SBC Communications Inc. (NYSE:SBC - news) and Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD - news) joined the Dow Jones index earlier this week, replacing several century-old industrial and retail companies with four stalwarts of the new economy.
``Clearly, this is a severe blow to Microsoft,' Hogan said. As of last week, it's in the Dow so it will play out with a real negative tone in the early goings," he said.
``I think upon appeal it may not be as harmful to Microsoft at the end of day as it appears, but it's clearly disappointing and it will set a negative tone to the market,' he said.
With further argument from both sides, the judge will decide in the coming months whether the facts show a violation of antitrust law that could lead to possible sanctions.
``It sounds pretty ominous,' fund manager McNeil said. ``But in the scope of things this will be a short-term setback for Microsoft,' she said. ``We're long term holders and we're not going to change our position on the company.'
``People are going to look at this out of context. This is the first act of a three-act play, or rather the first inning in a nine-inning baseball game,' said Jim Lucier, a political high-tech analyst for brokerage Prudential Securities.
``This is largely what we expected, the judge is largely siding with the government case,' Lucier said. ``The question is not to what extent to which the judge has accepted the government's finding of fact. But rather, the extent to which any of the is holds up in appeal.' |
