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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.06

-0.8%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Rascal who wrote (16811)	11/7/1999 4:30:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (3) of 29970

Questions that go right to the heart of things. No easy answers but its good to be reminded of the big picture now and then. of the 20 million remaing households .. how many are using dial-up? I'm guessing internet use in North America is roughly 50%. It was 30% about a year ago and obviously is trending to 90%. Dial up is almost all of that right now, with total broadband being somewhere in the 5% domain. What is excite @home doing to: #1 convert the dial-ups to cable braodband Roll them trucks baby. Right now its as simple as that. They can only do the installs so fast. When self install comes (~6months away) we will see what the level of demand truely is. My feel is that if people could do a no hassle signup now broadband (cable + dsl) penetration would be roughly 10-15% of all homes (something like 1/4 of all internet users). It is twice as expensive after all. After that its about making broadband have enough uses to make it worth the extra money. People have to come to see broadband as essential to daily life. Hopefully Excite will lend a hand here, but content creaters all over the globe will be helping too. We are all waiting for the first killer app to hit: Video on Demand. No more movie rentals. #2 educate the non-users to the point where they will buy internet/broadband The major push here from Excite@home is to disguise broadband internet in a form that people will accept. They call it "Interactive Television". The computer is now a set top box and the monitor is a television set. Presumably the software will be written to satisfy the needs of the non-technically minded. Excite is also providing internet service (dial-up at the moment) for video game stations. Broadband is obviously next. Your next questions were because of my own lack of precision in terminology. The current penetration is ~1/20, but its very hard to read anything useful into that for the long term because of the limitation in installation rate. I'll guarantee you this: In 20 years what we call "broadband" internet will be as widely used as color television is today. Dial-up will be as common as the rotary telephone. Ever seen one of those? Eric

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