*OT* Bux - forecasting the 3G situation is almost impossible. The timetable, how fast it's implemented, what are the exact licensing fees to different parties, etc. The more a company has riding on third generation, the riskier it is.
Actually, the less a company has riding on 3G the riskier it is. Profit is not known to favor obsolete technologies but companies that are able to maintain a technological lead. We don't need to know the exact licensing fees to know that Q will collect the bulk of 3G CDMA royalties whether the flavor is W-CDMA or CDMA2000.
Qualcomm's current earnings growth is driven by second generation technology, IS-95 (CDMA). 3G CDMA is just an extension of Qualcomm's pioneering work in CDMA. The rules of physics haven't changed but the technology does march forward. I am glad Qualcomm is staying on the leading edge of wireless technology, not frightened by it.
How do you think Qualcomm will muscle in on the W-CDMA market after opposing W-CDMA for all these years?
Uhh..Qualcomm owns the bulk of W-CDMA IPR. Don't you get it? W-CDMA won't even work without Qualcomm's innovations. They don't have to muscle in on it, they own it. Qualcomm opposed W-CDMA only in so much that they supported a single compatible standard that would benefit consumers and the industry. It is the European producers that have been stubborn here. Qualcomm has agreed to let them configure a separate 3G CDMA standard with slightly different specifications so consumers will need to buy dual mode handsets in order to have compatibility with two slightly different standards. This was not how Qualcomm wanted it as it will cost consumers more but Q is trying to be as accommodating as reasonably possible. The higher prices of dual-mode handsets will actually increase Q's royalty/handset since the amount is based on the price of the handset.
How do they start selling components to key W-CDMA manufacturers, when the company has been excluded from all key W-CDMA collaborations?
Oh, please! This is the second time I have seen you say that Q is excluded from W-CDMA. W-CDMA, if adopted by the ITU becomes a published technical standard. Anyone can produce components for this market as long as they have the necessary expertise and are willing to pay royalties to those who own the IPR.
Besides, what does Q produce besides leading edge research and development? Don't tell me you have finally figured out that ASICS are a lucrative part of Q's business model? Contrary to silly claims by Ericsson, it is Qualcomm who has the most experience designing CDMA chips. It doesn't matter if they are W-CDMA or CDMA2000.
Nokia makes great phones.
Bux |
