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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked

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To: Tim Luke who wrote ()11/7/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: Ivan  Read Replies (4) of 90042
 
So let's talk about stock.

ARTT - Advanced Radio Telecom
Current Price: $15 3/8
Current Market Cap: $420M
12mo. Target Price: $80
Target Market Cap: $2200M

What: (from YHOO)
Advanced Radio Telecom Corp. provides wireless broadband telecommunications services using microwave transmissions in the 38GHz band of the radio spectrum throughout the U.S. For the six months ended 6/30/99, revenues rose 28% to $565 thousand. Net loss totaled $43 million, up from $18.7 million. Revenues reflect increased internet service revenues. Higher loss reflects a $6.4 million equipment impairment charge and increased depreciation expenses.

Why: (all from ART's website)

Advanced Radio Telecom (ART) is the first company to integrate fiber-optic and 100Mbps broadband wireless technologies into a reliable, high-performance, packet-switched data communications network, which bypasses the "local loop". Bypassing the "local loop" has two direct benefits to your organization:

Currently, ART owns 352 38 GHz wireless licenses covering 210 US markets, including 49 of the top 50 and 90 of the top 100 markets.

One of the advantages of the 38 GHz band is the innovative licensing structure the FCC has established versus other unlicensed spectrums. Rather than requiring individual wireless "link" licenses, the FCC established area licenses. As a licensed operator in the 38 GHz band, ART has an exclusive right to use one or more 100 MHz blocks of spectrum.

No other carrier or wireless provider can use the specified frequency within a service area at the 38 GHz licensed spectrum. In comparison, many unlicensed frequencies may have competing devices or providers using the same spectrum which causes interference or security problems (such as with cordless phones).

Current 38 GHz radio systems support speeds up to OC-3 (155Mbps). ART's 38 GHz radio systems are engineered with a bit error rate of 10-13 - the same as fiber optics technology and superior to copper.

** I know for a fact that 1Gb data rates will be available in 2001 or sooner **

Now the really compelling parts. (should be read in order - too long to post and copyright issues)

yahoo.cnet.com
techweb.com

And for the comparisons: (we'll use one, using more only builds the case)

TGNT - Teligent Inc.
Current Price: $63 7/8
Current Market Cap: $3444M

What: (from YHOO)
TGNT is a full-service, integrated communications company that offers small and medium-sized business customers local, long-distance, high-speed data and dedicated Internet services over its Digital SmartWave(TM) local network. For the six months ended 6/99, revenues rose from $241 thousand to $5.5 million. Net loss rose from $97.7 million to $231.6 million. Results reflect the Co.'s first quarter of commercial communication services operations, offset by higher costs of network operations.

Side by Side

Revenue (TSM) ARTT : $565K
Revenue (TSM) TGNT : $5500K
Loss (TSM) ARTT : $43M
Loss (TSM) TGNT : $232M
Market Cap ARTT: $440M
Market Cap TGNT: $3444M

For some thoughts:

Which company has secured bandwidth rights by license? ARTT.
Which company must compete in unlicensed spectrums? TGNT
Who has the link with "ride the light" QWST who wants "any movie, any time, any where"?
Who will be able to capitalize on the coming 1Gb data rate wireless modems as they have built a customer base in larger office complexes of people wanting better service and an integrated supplier? ARTT
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