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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?
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To: mgsam who wrote (2549)6/7/1996 12:08:00 AM
From: Young D.T. Nguyen   of 58324
 
Mgsam, I have done some thinking and came to conclusion that --
by trying to educate the IOMG shorts and IOMG bears on Iomega 's
potential and positives -- we are actually doing these folks a big favor
and doing a disservice to ourselves as longterm investors.

The biggest weapon we have as IOMG investors is the element of
surprise, as in big positive revenue and earning surprises. Nothing move
stock price like big positive surprises. The shorts also fear positive
surprises more than death itself, since it is the undisputed short killer.
The average investors and non-techie institutions also love to jump
on stocks with positive surprises.

By spilling our guts to IOMG shorts and bears, we may unintentionally
lessen the effect of positive surprises and also raise shorterm expectations
of IOMG investors as well as watchers -- which can turn out to be a
significant negative to us IOMG long.

I think we should keep our expectations low and reasonable, then sit
back and keep quiet, let the shorts and the bears have their way for
a while and short interests to accumulate. Then, BOOM, quarterly earning
reports come out and before you and I can say "WOW", a scrambling of
of historic proportion to buy IOMG shares from both the shorts and the
I-can't-make-up-my-mind-so-I-wait-till-2Q-report folks will occur - and we'll
be in the next stratosphere.

Does that make sense? I think so, and as such I will refrain from posting
for a while. Anyhow, there are already plenty of information already posted
and repeated many times on this thread anyway for the diligent investors.

Also, I propose that we adopt the following expectations of IOMG:

1.2 bils revenue next 2 quarters.
Maximum 5 mils Zip drives sold in in 1996.
Zip tie ratio around 2-3.
Not too many Jaz drives/disks sold in 1996.
Jaz tie ratio around 1-2.
Ditto drives/tapes sale not worth mentioning.
Net margin 4-6% next 4 quarters.
IBM deal probably won't happen
Compag deal definitely won't happen.
Apple deal probably won't happen.
No more significant OEM deals.
Competitions to Zip and Jaz will be everywhere shortly.
Little chance of Zip becoming a standard.

Now let's sit back and wait for the surprises. Regard.
Young




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