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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Scott C. Lemon who wrote (28817)11/7/1999 11:24:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Hello Scott,

Your last reply to me is a quite interesting melange of non sequiturs and ad hominems. I was trying to figure out just how one is supposed to reply to some of them within the bounds of logical expression, but it looks like Bearded One and Paul covered the important bases.

A couple of things though -

>>>Likewise, there is no way to look at where we are in the computing world and say "If we removed Microsoft and their tactics, we would be {x}!" ... chaos theory tells me that you can't predict such outcomes ...>>>

Before AT&T was broken up, we paid an artificially high price for communications services and equipment. There was no economic incentive for AT&T to rapidly innovate. Since the break up (not destruction of AT&T, but injection of competition into the industry) our communications services and equipment are exponentially faster and cheaper because multiple groups of very bright people with a vested interest in doing well were allow to innovate for an economic incentive. It is not a "possibility" that we have paid a tremendous opportunity cost due to Microsoft's monopoly, it is a certainty. The question is, how much. I think Bearded One and Paul are exactly right, open the API and let a standards body administer it. I would like to see how many copies of Office 2000 MSFT sells for $550 each once this happens. Microsoft stockholders might at that point want to debate you on what the real definition of Chaos Theory is.

>>>... and how does this relate to the fuel cells and electric cars that I've been promised since being a kid? And video telephones? High-definition TV? Space stations? Oh yeah ... and the "balanced budget"?>>>

Space stations and the balanced budget. Hmmm.

>>>More to the point ... gosh I heard a lot of hype about this "savior of software" called Java! Can you tell me how many Java applications you're running on a daily basis today? Where is Java?>>>

For consumer software, we don't see much yet, but who wants to write Java for Windows anyway if the API is not open, or develop with MSFTs bastardized version. In terms of internal business application, for just one small set of examples, go to the archives at Internet Week and poke around, its like a roll call of FORTUNE 1000 companies, and it is just getting started. I think Visual Cafe 3.0 has been well received, I am SURE that a very large money center bank in my area has 68, yes 68 open reqs for Java developers.

>>>Closer to home ... how many Novell announcements have fallen in the gutter? Where is your SuperNOS today? The whole NetWare/UNIX pitch?>>>

It's doing quite well. HTTP and bundled WebSphere are not far away!! By the way, you have really changed your spots from just a short while ago when you were with Novell. Is it animosity toward a former employer, or is it because you are now making a living developing to the Win 32 API, which you so heavily criticized when you were a Novell employee? I am not asking this sarcastically, its just an amazing change of heart.

>>>Unlike many companies that just don't get it, a company should also do a "good enough" job to continue to make progress. There is no such thing as perfect people, or perfect software ... so why focus on trying to develop it? You're going to have to rewrite the software anyhow>>>

You have obviously never had to walk down the hall and ask for six or eight hundred thousand dollars for "this year's" Windows software and hardware upgrades, and justify that request by saying "it's good enough, there is no such thing as perfect software anyway. MSFT is working on getting it right, and we can pay $800,000 in two years to get the good version." What a pathetic joke. Is that the way it has to be? I think there are a large group of developers out there who think not.

>>>You seem to have in your mind a scenario that we are about to see play out. Can you describe this for us? Who is going to rush in to "conquer" Microsoft? What companies and products are up to the task? I agree that *something* is going to happen, but I don't seem to have as clear a vision as you do ... I'm wondering if you could explain some of the potential scenarios that you see ...>>>

What value has MSFT really added to the basic PC instruction set that any developer couldn't add (and improve) in a week if allowed the Windows API? I never used the word "conquer", you did. I don't see any one company "conquering" Microsoft, I see them being exposed for the real innovators they are, once they are not allowed to collect a "PC tax" on every PC sold. No more subsidizing poor management. The market will revalue them, that is what will conquer them. Or, they might get religion and start meeting their development milestones for a change, who knows, but they will have to earn their keep, no more subsidy. Brad Silverberg didn't leave there on a whim, he is a smart person.

>>>Second, your fixation on the absolutes is the reason that you can't understand my statements. If you were to re-read my posts, you would see that my statements are that Microsoft is the "fittest" and has survived the best so far.>>>

I am not fixated on absolutes, you are. Microsoft is not the "fittest" company in either an absolute OR relative sense. They haven't "survived" the best, they have been propped up at our expense. We have survived them, but at what cost?

>>>So I would caution you, and others, when they criticize the bugs that are found in NT, because through each failure they are learning, and fixing, the problems ... and making a stronger product. Likewise, through every failure to get NT as the foundation of HotMail ... they are failing ... but learning.

Another amazing statement from the not-so-long departed Novell employee. You posted here once that one of the fundamental flaws in NT Server as a web development platform and conduit to the Internet is that it would only pump data at 450 mbps vs. Novell's 1 gig, and that this would not be overcome in Windows 2000. When do you expect that MSFT will get HotMail live on NT? Will that happen with Windows 2000? If it doesn't, where does that leave them as a really robust web development platform, where will their earnings come from if they don't get the PC tax anymore?

You are impressive in your posts that reference your knowledge as a software architect, but your strategic thinking and arguments regarding Microsoft are weak.

jww
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