VG, thanks for posting that. I pretty much agree with
all you said.., except the tax comment. Assuming it's
all long term, it's 20%, yes? As a long term holder you
get extra leverage by holding onto irs money while it
continues to grow in your account, but if the growth assumptions
of the stock change, best to get out.
I'm not sure I'm as pessimistic as you on the price though.
To me it's a given that msft will have to change it's licensing
practices, minimum. so what does that mean?
1. some time in the next year or two it will become easier
to get different software from the oem's. os, probably apps too.
2. this will result in 'some' market deterioration in, say
2-3 years. (small % imo)
3. running the business will get more cumbersome.., so perhaps
a small addition to g&a to account for the extra auditing
that will be required to ensure box makers aren't scamming
them on units shipped, etc.
I really don't think there'll be some huge settlement, so for
the next 3-5 years I see virtually no hit to earnings..,
past 3-5 years, what might happen vs. what is the current
expectation of what will happen is what will drive the price
imo. most companies with this kind of visibillity, would
do fine, but we've got a Clint Eastwood judge and msft
making his day, so there's no telling how far he might try
to go..., uncertainty.., bad.
for me, Friday was shock, Saturday was anger, Sunday was
acceptance (to a degree) and now Monday we say, act?
the msft I have I've held since '92, and I know the feeling
of not wanting to write the big check to the IRS, but a smaller
check just means smaller gains.
long enough post.., will stop for now. thanks again for your post.
-k
ps. if you want humour, look at cherylw's posts. I'm not
trying to be mean, but they really did get me rolling. |
