Micheal - <You are being terribly biassed here, PB.>
Intel execs have publicly disclosed that .18 / Coppermine production is on or ahead of schedule. They have also stipulated that they intend to meet demand overall for the Q. I have no reason to disbelieve them.
<So you say, there is to much demand for Alumniumines, thus intel did not produce enough units , because demand exceeded their expectations.>
This is certainly at least part of it. If production is in fact on or ahead of schedule, and supply is scarce, and the fabs continue to ramp w/o issue, I am not terribly worried. My pride will survicve my blown prediction.
I have already said quite a few times that IMHO this was not a typical Intel launch, for whatever reason. I just don't believe there is something terribly wrong at this point, beyond what Intel execs have already disclosed.
<A little while back, elmer/you/etc said :
AMD cant deliver enough cpu's, thus its a fab problem. (as in, manifacturing difficulties) . There is no physical difference between the two, as the result is that certain cpu's are scarce in the market.>
When did I say this? Maybe in June and July, when AMD announced the K7, and nothing showed up for 2 months, I might have speculated such. I know I did speculate on AMD bin splits at various times. This situation is dynamic, and actually I believe at this point in time AMD bin splits have improved quite a bit.
As I have said before, I had anticipated more volume in the retail channel at launch for Coppermine. I was wrong. By next week I anticipate the situation to be some what rectified. If it is not, I will start to become worried.
Also, I believe demand is also tight for .25um product as well.
Barrret has already gone out on a limb and stipulated that Intel will have a record breaking Q4 w.r.t. revenues. If the Intel fabs were having problems, I'm fairly certain he would not have said this so early in the Q.
Actually, if PC demand is strong, AMD and Intel both may have decent Q4 results. The way the respective stocks seem to be moving in tandem, this seems to be what the market expects.
PB |
