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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.835-1.1%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Mr.Fun who wrote (2661)11/8/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (1) of 34857
 
This is what I didn't understand about that Herschel Shosteck report. I love Jane Zweig to pieces - she's been extremely acute in many ways - but I don't get this prediction that the Japanese will suddenly vault to the top of the mobile telecom markets with 3G. The W-CDMA networks will be sold mostly to GSM operators. It takes imagination to see them suddenly flocking to NEC infra. If switching from Motorola to Ericsson is a scary leap for most operators - how much faith will it take to suddenly start buying network equipment from Asian companies with little GSM expertise?

Consumer preferences aren't changed overnight, either. If Sony brand wasn't strong enough to break through some pretty nifty GSM and CDMA phones in USA and Europe, how easy will it be for Mitsubishi or Toshiba to make it?

It's very hard to see what the market for W-CDMA phones without GSM or CDMA dual-mode features will be. The first networks aren't going to cover much more than the biggest urban centers. If most of the W-CDMA phones are going to include second-generation modes, these products can be easily framed as GSM or CDMA phones with third-generation "turbo-features". In 2002 you make cut-rate second generation voice calls for 3-5 cents a minute and use the 3G features for mobile data. That's going to leave the current manufacturers in the position to sell 3G as an extension of present services. Not some sci-fi paradigm shift that suddenly drops a Toshiba phone with videostreaming in the laps of consumers and operators who have never backed this brand.

Tero

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