DownSouth: Since I concentrate on wireless and fiberoptics, I will comment on your move toward the Q. Nothing is certain in this life except death, taxes (and now) regulation.
In a rational world, the more Q, the more likely the performance of the portfolio to excel IMO. As was stated in the latest Dr J interview by the interviewer, the next Qualcomm is Qualcomm. And the Q is a gorilla at least in its "niche" of CDMA as Mike Buckley points out. I see the key to Q's future over the next 10 years as its participation in data on the shoulders of voice. With the huge advantage of mobility. Is this a slam dunk, no way. Is it a practical real possibility, suggest that it is. For starters, tune into the HDR conference underway today.
Since my interest in wireless and fiberoptics is that IMO data is the future, i.e. the rapid transmission of data is the major opportunity now, investments there have the advantage of riding a wave - a real wave not a mirage. The Q will participate as will JDSU.
I have yet to see a persuasive case that JDSU is a full card carrying gorilla (if a gorilla could carry a card). But what a king ! BTW I have searched and searched in the fiberoptics jungle and have found no gorillas yet.
Re JDSU's king qualities.
It is in the sweet spot of fiberoptics - supply of the components essential to the entire system.
JDSU is the only supplier who can provide both active and passive components combined as "modules"
JDSU growth is limited by its ability to supply its customers, the demand is there. (A good position to be in, no?)
JDSU has an advantage similar to the Q - its engineers and technological experts broadly defined. Its brain power is a huge advantage and not easily matched.
Sure LU and NT have plenty of brainpower but so far their choice has been to buy from JDSU - the specialists in component equipment supply.
JDSU is in the process of moving agressively in buying other related companies to broaden its base in supplying components. It is using its stock as "currency" - a stock with a high multiple so it is very valuable currency right now. This is following the pattern that Cisco has used so effectively.
Perhaps the most important qualitative advantage JDSU has is its management. Two top people who have made the merger work. And an overall boss (the classic outside man) who has ramped up UNPH production prior to the merger with amazing skill, and a classic inside man who built his company JDS Fitel to the first rank. May be some warts on this, but not yet visible if they are there.
And JDSU is twice the size of its direct competition combined.
For you who remember the phrase in Charlotte's Web "Some pig !", JDSU is "Some king !"
Enough.
With all this, should anyone be 100% in the Q alone, or 100% in the Q and JDSU in some combination, that is an individual choice.
My personal choice is no.
The problem I see with only one egg in the investing basket, or even two, is that no matter how great the choice is, there is a human problem of nervousness which may lead to sleeplessness when the one or the two hit bad patches - even incorrectly perceived bad patches.
LindyBill clearly sees this differently and has been eloquent in why and how.
Others agree.
Using my own sleep at night test, I prefer major Q and somewhat smaller JDSU holdings along the pattern of my game, but in my case I also hold others which I see as having a bright future but are younger and have perhaps even greater price appreciation potential - maybe (and or course, maybe not). And I limit my risk by sticking to the area I know best - wireless and fiber.
(Well, not quite - I own the "nurturers" such as SFE and ICGE but not individual internet stocks - at least not yet)
Enough.
Comments welcome.
Cha2 |
