are we getting close to too much greed yet? Never stop asking this!!!
We have been shooting fish in a barrel by buying looking over the major fund managers shoulders. The thing I am enjoying most is that the media has still not figured out what is going on. . . and as long as they are blind, we are not in as much fear of a bear attack.
Now bears are still taking positions at these new highs. . . make no mistake. . .every morning and 15 minutes before close, you can track their prints on the intradays of the high fliers. But how many losing days can they have before they start getting pre-occupied with margin calls?
To better answer your question. . . typically these January effects do not last more than about 3 days. . .so perhaps selling into tomorrow's highs may be the best move in many of them. . . . then again, these stocks do not gap. . . the buying comes in slowly and increases gradually. . making them harder to see. . .and making the highs much harder to call.
But frankly, I am quite happy with most of my holdings long term, and am mostly interested in just selling the swing trade positions, until I see clear evidence that the sell-off has started. . . I am thinking we have 2 weeks of fun left, then we go South for the winter. . . until the end of December.
However, if the sell-off begins as early as this Wednesday, it would not surprise me too much. . . that would be consistent with last year. . . only 1 month early. I am hoping that we see 1 extra week. . . [thinking with my wallet]. . . but I will start getting more defensive as early as this week.
The thing to remember is that these moves are by sector. Today is mostly B2B. Tomorrow could be Broadbands or xDSL and wireless. . .similarly to last weeks sector/divisional moves. So be careful with the timing of buys or sells. . . don't want to buy those highs and sell just before major moves. . . .always best to sell into the strength and buy on weakness. . .the fundamentals never change.
I am getting more concerned now that I see hard core shorts going long the market. . . .every contrarian alarm goes off, when I see that.
So, I am answering your question by posing more things to consider. . . hopefully this will help us to read the coming moves. . .I don't have the definitive answer you seek. I just don't feel we are done with the major accumulation yet. . . many of these stocks were way overshorted and have far more to run, before they tire.
Some just defy gravity. . . I found myself throwing caution to the wind and buying stocks like VERT and RHAT this morning when they were both up sharply. . . .now they are both WAY up. I don't reccommend anyone trade so aggressively as this. .. very risky.
Use your brains, your sense and your charts and remember this. . .
When your baby spikes, BEFORE you get up to do a dance. . . sell some of your baby. Your dance will be all the sweeter, knowing you banked some of your gains.
Rande Is |
