[Now I ask what is this thing with Rhat and does it really impose any threat to Microsoft?? Also are there any other companies with promising opportunity for investors who compete with Microsoft]
IMO RHAT (i.e. Linux) is more a thorn than a threat at this point. Some customers will threaten to adopt Linux for bargaining leverage, reducing Windows server profit margins. Linux is a very viable alternative for certain server applications. However, I believe it's desktop potential is yet to be proven.
Honestly, I'm glad Linux exists as it forces MSFT to maintain a responsiveness on small customer server-side issues/complaints. MSFT has shown a focus that's too much on the high-end server business potential rather than the small and medium server business potential, which I believe is more winnable and equally strategic short term. Win2000 doesn't have to dethrone SUNW in the high-end. It's the follow-on release that must make inroads there.
AOL is the most serious threat to MSFT at the moment, i.e. the one with the tools to change the rules of the game.
SUNW and ORCL, I believe, are going to be very busy defending their server business in the next couple years. They'll make good money certainly, but I'd be surprised if they made significant inroads on MSFT turf. I have great confidence in the Unix companies complete inability to work with each other. The Java based Network Computers they were hyping have proven underwhelming in customer trials.
IBM and NOVL have both moved to paths where they don't butt heads directly with MSFT as much, which I believe was smart in both cases. I don't see any frightening threats to MSFT from either in the next few years.
In recent years, MSFT has been scared of being blind-sided by the little computers, e.g. cell phones, hand held PDIs, set-top boxes, and game machines. I believe they have devoted enough resources there that they will participate in any "little" revolution, rather than be overrun.
In short, I don't see MSFT being dethroned in the next 3 years. The explosion of new billion dollar internet companies, such as YHOO and AMZN will continue. These, however, are generally complementary to MSFTs goals. |
