Wow! That was an exciting presentation. Irwin Jacobs is really impressive. He comes across as being really sincere without trying to be sincere. He also said some very interesting and (for Qualcomm investors) exciting things. The downside to the Q&A period was that the questioneers had no microphones so it was necessary to glean the question from the answers. Additionally, my copper connection of 48,000 bps was not enough for acceptable sound or video. I wish the video could be disabled to allow HQ audio or with HDR, no problem.
Irwin said that EDGE is not the fastest way to get to 3G CDMA and that he has doubts about the commercial viability of the technology. My impression was that he was quite confident of this.
He said one of the problems with EDGE (aside from the heating and capacity problems) is channels are combined to achieve higher data rates. So say 7 channels are combined and are providing data to a mobile user when a hand-off is necessary. So, seven channels are required to be free on the cell receiving the user. What to do? Reserve all these channels on all adjacent cells? What if two or three data users enter the same cell? Also, while Irwin didn't say this, I came away with the impression that the Edge upgrade path was not as cost-effective or as graceful as the CDMA upgrade path.
A re-occuring theme with the presentation was how flexible and cost-effective CDMA data is compared to the alternatives and how incremental upgrades are easy to achieve. Part of the network can be upgraded to support higher data rates while the rest of the network can continue to operate as always but still be compatible with the new mobile devices and the current handsets are likewise compatible with the new infrastructure.
He estimated the infrastructure upgrade cost from IS-95 to 1XRTT would be 10-20% the initial cost of the base station. I think he said the upgrade would consist of a new card, software upgrade and upgrade from one T-1 required to support voice to 3 T-1's needed to handle the extra data.
I think someone asked a question about radiation and that Irwin indicated the power levels were the same as IS-95. I am under the impression this compared favorably to the TDMA data solutions.
Wireless Knowledge is on a separate but complimentary track from Qualcomm to provide the data solutions to corporations once the data hardware is installed.
Jeff (Jacobs?) said WirelesKnowledge was being "aggressive" and some positive announcements can be expected in the next "few months."
The most impressive part of the whole presentation was how focused Irwin Jacobs was. I am under the impression that he felt no need to exaggerate or hype the technology but that his mission was that of an educator. I think it is important to consider what possible motives Irwin could have. First, as he has pointed out himself, it's not about money. You can only drive so many cars, live in so many houses, eat in so many resturants, etc,. I know it's not about power, control etc. Irwin is just a very humble and decent person, doesn't fit the profile of someone on a power trip. So what is driving him? Two things I think. 1) He is a thinker and a technophile who has been an intregral part of the development of an amazingly creative and even beautiful technology (mathematically speaking). He loves his work. And
2) Like most decent folk, he feels the need to contribute to society. He would give this technology away if it weren't for the responsibility he feels to his employees who have worked so hard to make this dream a reality and the responsibility to the other shareholders who also made this possible.
For these reasons, I find Irwin very credible and think other investors will do well to put a lot of credence to the things he says. These are not the words of a man backed into a corner or the words of a man trying to make something that is mediocre sound great.
He also spoke about time to market and how 1XRTT and HDR have the advantage here.
Sorry I couldn't give a more detailed account but I would have to say the entire presentation was very upbeat and positive without seeming "commercialized, packaged and sanitized."
I highly recommend listening to the archive of this presentation even with the technical difficulties I mentioned earlier.
Bux |
