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Strategies & Market Trends : Meditrust NYSE: MT

MT 38.39

+2.6%

11:26 AM EST

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To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (131)	11/8/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: WILLIAM C KLEMA	Read Replies (1) of 233

<Uncertainty rules!> Couldn't agree more DocStone! And because of it, the market is creating a great value in MT. As for the market turning it's nose at outstanding returns during a time of creeping inflation. I think that statement in itself sums up today's stock market as a whole. I personally can't stop thinking about that article written by Warren Buffet about the stock market. If one believes Mr. Buffet is even half right (he predicted 4% returns over the next 17 years or something close to this) .... And it's hard to argue with his record over a long period of time ... I would think 15% dividend yield is worth the risk of a LOT OF UNCERTAINTY! As for MT giving more guidance? They certainly leave you reading between the lines don't they. I think you are on to something about renegotiating the leases. This would tend to support a 50% cut in the dividend. And my other thought on that is that they want to get the bad news out of the way to the point of creating a final selloff! Then from there, they can rebuild. Congress threw the whole industry into disarray and as a result, investments needed to be DEVALUED in order to create VALUE. My final thought is this. When I look at the chart of MT (Picture is worth a thousand words), I am awestruck at the steep decline of what seems to be a fairly well run company up until the last year or so. When the bottom is reached, I get the sense that the stock will ENJOY a quick 100% plus gain! And right now, I believe that could be from the high $5 level Or today's close to something around book value ... $12 a share. That also lets me think that maybe the cut in the dividend will only be to about $1.20 a year. No facts or anything what so ever to support this ... it is just a gut feel. And regardless, gotta love 15% dividends in a 3+% inflation environment. Good luck to all, we'll be just fine!

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