Thanks for your response Thomas.
<Lets take $3/unit as an example>
OK. I haven't a reason to not accept this. Anyone object to this number?
<and multiply that by, lets say 20 million, (I will take into account the probability of ADSL making its way into set top boxes and HDTV sets as well as computer related units>
I don't know about 20 million. How many do you think they will license in '97? In '98? In '99? And what do you base this on? I want to calculate some conservatively reasonable growth rates.
<Second, you state, "Motorola and TI can sell their DMT chips to
anyone." What do you mean by this statement?>
This is in the section of my post that I labeled as competition in *modem* sales. We can assume the $3 per modem license sold in our *license* rev and earning section above. In this section, we consider that anyone who sells a modem using Motorola's or TI's chips will compete directly with AMTX *modem* sales. Certainly AMTX would hope to make more than $3 /modem sold?
<CAP and NON-STANDARD DMT have severe limitations going beyond
12,000 ft, it has been PROVEN that Amati's DMT implementation is far
superior up to a distance of 18,000 ft. AMTX does have an end to end
solution.>
My point here is that once you get much past the 1 mile mark, with the inconsistencies known in ALL instantiations of ADSL - performance drops significantly. And while I have heard some competitive figures for CAP, I was implying that the combination of distance and need for an AMTX-DMT at the CO end (which certainly won't be the case for the majority of modem users, at least in the near future), that the versatility of buying a $200 USRX v-everything (which offers two flavors of ADSL - AWRE DMT and CAP; v.34; their own 56K; and possibly ISDN; to be available this summer) will be *significant* competition for AMTX - both in licenses and in direct modem sales. In other words, the loss of the USRX contract to Aware could have significant impact.
<Fourth, YES AMTX is working with a little company called SourceComm on ATM integration>
I hadn't seen this. Glad they are planning ahead (which in this market, means just keeping up, and just for a short time). Do you know the details, ie., when they might have a demo?
<No animosity intended, just setting the record straight>
Thanks Tom. None taken.
I'm just trying to do my due diligence on AMTX, asking reasonable questions that anyone who owns or is considering owning AMTX might want to ask. Thanks for contributing.
Regards-
Steve |
