Steven,
Thanks. To keep this post short, I'll start off with my technical reasons for buying CMGI. I'll try to get to the options stuff later. Hope this isn't too long or boring.
CMGI broke out of a falling wedge at 95 in late Sept. Successfully tested major support at 90 in mid Oct. As mentioned on this board, forming a symetrical triangle on low volume, meaning the stock should make a big move soon. Given the state of the market and the nets, my guess is it will be up. Bollinger bands bullish. CMGI also has formed a huge inverse head & shoulders pattern which measures to 160-170.
Finally and very important - sentiment. When I read this board, there is so much negativity toward CMGI, with guys selling or threatening to bail, complaining about DW, etc. When I started buying EGRP, the attitude on their boards was almost identical - diehards pissed off but not giving up, weak hands bitching and moaning and selling... In my experience, this is not indicative of a stock that has topped out. In fact, it usually lays a foundation for the next move higher.
I don't care if CMGI languishes for a while longer, as I think it will give it even more upside when it does break out. MOF, I wouldn't be surprised to first see a head fake back down to support at 96-98 to shake out the last of the weak hands. I know it's painful to watch this unfold while stocks like ICGE go ballistic, but IMO patience will be rewarded.
Chet
BTW, for those who want to wait for confirmation, breakout would be over 115 1/4 |
