I just got home and still see no news.
I'm sure you all have herd of the term "WAG", which stands for Wild Assed Guess. In Data processing there is a similar term called "SWAG" (the "S" stands for Systematic) where the "guess" is based on more than pure speculation. As I have been following this stock very closely for years. Here is my best SWAG on what may have been the driver for today's events.
Let's examine the possibilities
NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT(s)
There are 1 or 2 big ones left, I think. Zuma that we know about and an Optical Router that I am guessing based on what's missing from MRVC's current product lineup. Both would be big news, but new product announcements have never moved this stock before, therefore I don't think this is it.
IPO NEWS.
We all know this is coming, but it is getting late in the year. I read the IPO market is likely to close by Thanksgiving, and we still don't have a CEO for OA announced. I think this is unlikely as the cause of this runup. My thoughts tend towards early next year for this. HC, ZUMA and NAC are further down the road.
NEW CEOs, CFOs OR OTHER EXECS
Now, this is a distinct possibility. We know MRVC is actively looking for an OA CEO, and this would definitely be enough to cause this kind of move, IMO. But wasn't NAC also looking for top execs? This could be another possibility that might be a contributing factor here.
ALLIANCES OR PARTNERSHIPS
Noam said they were coming, and they are overdue. It's time to deliver, Noam. This also would definitely do the trick for today's move.
CONTRACTS
Now, unless you are blind, a complete non-techie, or VERY negatively inclined towards this company, you have to know that MRVC WILL (yes WILL) receive significant contracts for one or more of their new products. They are just too good for this not to happen, IMO.
That said, it seems to me that it is still a bit too early for this. For Zuma and CW, I would guess we are at least 6 months away. That leaves NAC, Red-C and Linux Router.
NAC could be close to some wins. Red-C should also get significant contracts. Normally I would think customers need to test the product longer, but we see the market for DSL absolutely about to explode, and the pressure has to be on them to get moving. So yes, Red-C could be close to wins - and if so, this would also move the stock.
NAC wins would also do this of course.
BUYOUTS
Nah. Wait until 2001 for this.
ADDITIONAL FUNDING
We know both CW and HC were to get additional funding. We have not heard anything for a long time here. These are both overdue. If the investors are well known, this could also move us up this much.
NEW COVERAGE
Unless a real biggie, like ML, I don't think this alone would move us this much. Of course ML remains a possibility, especially if they are involved in the upcoming OA IPO.
My best guess? More than one of the above, as they are all "in process" (except probably a buyout). One thing almost for sure - I had to hit at least one nail on the head in this post. But which one - or hopefully "ONE's"?
|
