Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: charger who wrote (2143)	11/10/1999 12:15:00 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) of 3543

Charger I tend to agree that it is difficult to to imagine that things could ever be as good as they are now, be it our economy or the valuations in the marketplace. However I ask myself what would trigger a slowdown or perhaps a mild ressession........higher rates that put the brakes on the economy and spending, triggered by the inflation threat? Unfortunatly those "threats" seem proven to be elusive. I work in a stodgy old industry and the rapid flow of information is intensifying competition. while money flows like water in Silicon Vally, those who I know at Ford, GM, the steel industry and basic manufacturing are still shaving the edges off of pennies and killing one another. Unlike past economic cycles this one seems be driven by investment/expansion in the tech sector, driven by telecommunications, software, semiconductors and computers......all of which are significant export items for the USA and which don't consume significant economic inputs as compared to our traditional manufacturing industries(except investiment dollars).....untill we see a collapse of the tech sector or significant inflation in commodities (oil, minerals and the like driven by world economic growth), I think things will continue to do well or a least we'll be in a sideways market. I just don't see the markets for our tech industries slowing on a global basis, rather they will likely continue to grow. While inflation will continue to be a threat, I think the fed has refined their approach to the extent we aren't going to go back to 6-8 % unemployment (absent a war or major disruption of global stability/markets) The other favorable element for the market is money flow.......net saving and wealth creation should continue to be favorable for the market from a demographic view untill sometime between 2006 and 2010 mad2

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