ynot:" SPY + QQQ "
>QQQ relationship to S+P appears to be changing ?
...well, with QQQ up what, +40% YTD and SPY up only ~10%, then the capitalization "weights" of those NDX-100 stocks within the SnP500 index is growing - so yeah, it's changing, ynot - but is this really anything "new" ?
For the most part, IPOs do not directly affect QQQ.
When we dump the NDX-100 components we see all kindsa stuff other than MSFT INTC DELL the old, "TECH = PC" paradigm; stuff like WCOM/QCOM and AMGEN/BGEN that have little or nothing to do with the WinTel duopoly.
The biggest change that I have observed, ynot, since the bottom last OCT-98, is the subtle re-definition of what "TECH" is.
I think it's momentum, ynot. The herd is buying what's going up and what's going up is what the herd is buying (^_^) I'm a lousy momentum trader so, if you're into mo then hell, jump in and slide STOPs behind, is about all I can muster.
When prices are going up, my CORE is growing faster than SnP, and I'm "harvesting", selling shares off here and there, trying to keep allocations reasonably balanced.
>...to understand start/end sector rotation ?
as you said, you can chart the bellwethers from the start of some "dip" like 18-OCT. Or, even better, set up the MSN portfolio thingy for a hypothetical "buy" of $1000 worth of stock for each bellwether (or the sector index itself) from 18-OCT...
BKX.X = C
IUX.X = AIG
XBD.X = MWD
PNX.X = T
TXX.X = MSFT
SOX.X = INTC
NWX.X = CSCO
DOT.X = AOL
RLX.X = WMT
DRG.X = MRK
BTK.X = AMGN
OIX.X = XON
OSX.X = SLB
CEX.X = DD
FPP.X = IP
UTY.X = DUK
XAL.X = CAL
...for example; and by following their relative growth and decay from any "dip" day (or week) origin picked out from your SnP500 chart, you will likely see "rotation" going on.
-Steve |
