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AMZN 229.82-0.8%2:22 PM EST
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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (83742)11/10/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
>>Think theres any hope for a settlement?

((tried to post this last night - but SI would not let me))

Lizzy - I need to update my profile. While I held Microsoft stock for eight years (and used to work for the company), I sold my remaining holdings of MSFT in July of this year.

Personally, I don't believe that Microsoft will settle - I believe they will fight this all the way to the supreme court if they can. I just can't imagine Gates giving in to government demands (Gates has a bit of a competitive streak in him).

While I believe it is clear, with Microsoft's 95% share of the desktop operating system market, that they enjoy monopoly power, what I believe is less clear is the harm that consumers may have suffered because of it. We can really only speculate on that. And if one believes no harm has been done to date, one can only speculate on whether any harm will be done in the future should the company continue to maintain a monopoly.

I'm a bit surprised MSFT did not go down more on Monday. Even if Microsoft does eventually prevail in the federal case, the company may have to contend with numerous state cases, and class-action lawsuits that are bound to be filed as a result of the Fed's case. These may prove to be only a minor distraction - but they do introduce an element of further uncertainty for the company.

Aside from the cases, I'm also concerned about Microsoft's other major revenue streams. The company makes roughly 50% of its revenues and profits from Microsoft Office - and while Office has proven itself a very strong business in the past, I would be concerned that pressures from new technologies (such as the web) may pose a threat to Office.

-Eric
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