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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (74619)11/10/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: Oblomov  Read Replies (2) of 86076
 
As someone who implements time series methods and subjective analysis
for business forecasting, let me say this: all forecasting methods are merely
descriptive.

Money flow analysis is a method of analyzing local price conditions,
while TA purports to describe global conditions. Their descriptions
are valid in different time scales. And although TA enthusiasts
claim TA to be scale-invariant in time, I suspect that it is not (same
with money flow - it is a short or intermediate term predictor at best).

Making a priori predictions about future prices based on historical
money flow or TA involves a leap of faith - will historical
relationships continue to hold? Or are we at a point at which the
relationships may change?

As a professional, I express this uncertainty in terms of
probabilities. Or I provide a set of confidence intervals for my
forecasts. In the end it is a matter of judgement or even guesswork,
since even these tools are based on the volatility inherent in these
historical relationships.

AA

P.S. I hope I didn't sound like ahhaha here.
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