Dan,
I hope you don't mind, but I'm posting your yahoo link on this thread in case it gets lost on yahoo.
Thanks for all of your hard work on our behalf.
Paul
Various
by: makemilns (38/M)
11/10/1999 10:09 pm EST
Msg: 12201 of 12215
The following summarizes a conversation that I had with the company earlier.
They are discussing whether to publish the results of first clinical study on their
website or resubmit it to another journal.
As we know, the company is not conducting the second independent clinical studies.
The parties who are conducting the second studies are responsible for submitting the
results for peer review and publication if they desire. The company believes that the
independent researchers will submit the results for publication, and they will
encourage them to do so.
I asked if any consumers have called the company in the last few days to share their
experience with Zicam. Gel Tech is getting an average of 5 to 10 calls per day and
Gum Tech is getting an average of about 5 calls per day. The testimonials are
astounding. People have told the company that their cold symptoms are going away
in 24 to 48 hours and they are raving about Zicam. Word of mouth advertising here we
come.
Gum Tech's patent attorney has fully investigated Mr. Smith's patents and believes
that Zicam does not infringe on them. Without getting too technical, Gel Tech's patent
is for the gel delivery system and not a zinc nasal gel. Also, the patent is for a spray
and Zicam is a gel. These are totally different products and no patent could cover any
substance that one puts in their nose. The gel delivery system can be used in more
products than just Zicam. Hmm, now what can we read into this?
Regarding the earnings, sales of Zicam were more than half of the total sales in Q3.
Total sales were about $2.2 million, so sales of Zicam were probably around $1.3 to
$1.5 million. Sales of Zicam in just the first 5 or 6 weeks of Q4 are more than three
times this much, or about $5 million. The reports about Zicam selling out nationwide
are true and the company is quickly refilling the channel. The 10Q will be out on
Monday, and it will contain more detailed financial data than in the press release.
The company's gum sales in Q3 were lower than I anticipated and this is the reason
that my earnings estimate was off. However, I'm not concerned about it because the
upcoming dental gum contract and nicotine gum contract will grow this part of their
business substantially. As I have often posted, they aren't going to get rich on Breath
Asure Dental Gum, Aspirgum, and Acutrim Diet gum. These products are basically
paying the bills while they move into phase II of their business plan, and it is during
phase II where the hyper-growth in sales and profits will materialize.
My guess about tomorrow: Investors will focus on the future of the company (primarily
nicotine gum), the forward looking statements in the press release, and the
tremendous demand for Zicam. I believe that the stock will trade higher.
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