American Superconductor (AMSC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : American Superconductor (AMSC)

AMSC 34.91

-5.3%

12:55 PM EST

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To: Wafa SHIHABI who wrote (277)	11/11/1999 12:21:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) of 973

<I don't think anyone can give you numbers that will materialize with any degree of certainty.> I guess you are right....though estimates are always measured against a degree of certainty. <This is not a business that will grow at 10%pa from a stable base. This is a business that will either represent a quantum leap in power transmission and utelization, or go bust trying to get there.> Somehow to me its a question of when and whom, not if. Perhaps I am attached technically to the matter to be objective. <The key issues I look for, is the aging world wide power grid and the fact that 8% of our energy is lost in transmission, and I don't even know how much more is lost in conversion. This represents the demand potential.> Application is obvious....question is how close each player is to recognized accordingly, and which players might survive the Darwinian winnowing of the heard. So, the question for me is, not whether to invest, but whether to invest in all players as suggested in the Guerilla game theory (I am probably butchering the book's principle). My point is if you want to hedge your investment in AMSC, do you plop money down on SCON and ISCO too? <The second issue of concern is which of the players is going to have enough working capital to get them to the market with their inovation.> As well as viable technology and business acumen to commercialize I assume. < AMSC has one of the best competitive positions in this regard.> Ahh....the crux of my question. Thanks. The fav is AMSC amongst the the few players I am aware of. Is this a heads a shoulders determination, a financial analysis (ISCO is bulletin board so I appreciate the distinction off the top :~)) or merely no one else pushing their weight around? <What value will the share get to?> I guess this is the excitement in investing in technologies such as these. <Investments in this field must be diversified and treated as options at this stage.> Agreed. Unfamiliar with IMG, thank you much for the heads up. <Some of the rest I view more as options.> Thus AMSC and IMG are the most stable of the bunch including ISCO and SCON? Thanks for your spin.....and patience with this lond winded post written too late for me to actually make sense of. :~) SemiBull ÿ

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