Now that the stock is up and we know that the recovery is firmly in hand, I guess all the bulls look like bull gurus :)
But seriously, what is going to separate the men from the boys on the next go-around will be the selling point. This stock will get near Merrill target this month. To sell then will be way early.
Trick is to predict when the recovery will end, not the exact 'price target' to sell. From here, it's WAY too early to be able to even smell that a little. My guess is a year from now, things might get a little bit clearer. By then, I expect to see LSI at $100 to $120.
But for now, my exit point is still as before - around spring '01, assumption is '02 will be bad, start of glut of 12" 0.12um, and the stock market predicts 6 months ahead of time. If I can get $120, so be it. $160 or even higher, I won't complain.
Won't be a price target I'll be looking for. But will keep my eyes open on when the 12" glut starts. Best indicator will still be as before - when the Thais or Indonesians or Bangladash start ramping their 12" fabs.
patrick |
