Hello Mr Fun. Since Tero referred to your post as being the light in a dark firmament, I thought I better read it!
You say the IPR rights for W-CDMA is unknowable until it goes to court. It went to court and Ericy caved in. Qualcomm has got the rights to their patents. Somebody else can of course dispute those rights. Good luck to them! They will spend a fortune on legal expenses and get nowhere except put their own position at risk. Qualcomm rights are very well established with very many licensees all signed up and paying. You think Ericy caved in front of the courthouse because they thought that Q! couldn't defend their W-CDMA rights?
Sure, Ericy might extract W-CDMA royalties from companies other than Qualcomm and that might make Ericy IPR dollar flow essentially even. But Q! will rake it in. Nokia will definitely be paying the full IPR rent to Qualcomm and presumably a similar amount to Ericy [unless they worked in with Ericy and agreed to some sharing of W-CDMA].
In regard to Ericy [or Nokia or any other company for that matter] being a friend of Qualcomm, I think the best we could say is that they might have shared interests. Much as a shark and a hagfish have shared interests, though of course a hagfish will eat a shark if given a chance. They are definitely not friends in the normal sense of the word. Businesses are very rarely genuine friends. They inherently compete for capital, staff and customers.
Ericy definitely has common interest with Qualcomm now [the CDMA division of Ericy anyway]. The GSM division of Ericy is now competing with the CDMA division and Qualcomm, though of course the GSM And CDMA divisions will be working together to try to make the cmda2000 clone as successful and unwarbly as they can, given that it has specs such as a wonky chip rate, odd synchronisation and clanky bells and shrill whistles.
Your comments on Nokia buying from Q! if it suits them, fits my way of thinking. They'll do it themselves if they can, and buy from Q! if they can't.
Read my previous post for the real reason for slow USA uptake of cellphones. Cheap wireline is not the real reason. In fact, wireline prices in the USA are NOT cheap. They are extorquerationate, though not as bad as European or Japanese. CDMA is a better 2G, 3G and 4G technology than obsolete GSM. Whether CDMA can put on a growth spurt [what do you call what it is doing right now?] and out grow GSM depends hugely on the relative merits of the two different 2G technologies. Sure, bombing China's embassy and blocking China on trade slowed CDMA down and fortress Europe imprisoned their citizens and stopped them experiencing the joys of capitalism and CDMA - forcing them into the GSM Goose-step.
That will change. The light of freedom will shine once again across Europe.
We agree that 3G will take years to spread across the world. The cdmaOne world will move quickly and smoothly and economically. The GSM world will be lumpy, slower and expensive and will probably need new spectrum to do it.
The transition in WWeb is going to be rapid. Takeovers/mergers, price cutting, data competitions, technology transitions and total telecom mania will be huge for 10 years. Trillions of dollars will slosh around trying to maximize position.
Nokia seems to be in one of the best positions. Ericy recovered well but has got a long way to go. Qualcomm is sitting in the box seat.
The Fun has begun.
Maurice |
