John, Rocket Scientist: after a few months off the SI boards, I'm reluctant to return as a cheerleader for Loral, much less in the face of the MSFT rumor mill. I too respect Valueman and know that he reached his negative CURRENT opinion on LOR only after careful analysis and repeated 'failure to deliver' on time performance from Bernie and his team. Further, the LOR risk factor has dramatically escalated given the dependence on Globalstar's success/failure: what once was a very appetizing leg under the stool (among many other legs) has become a big time support, the loss of which would be devastating.
All that said, I do think it's possible that data could be riding to the rescue--if LEO telephony holds less promise than originally envisioned, I have to believe that Gates and company remain committed to the Internet in the Sky. And I know damn well that Teledesic doesn't have a bat's chance of getting launched.
Throw in the Qualcomm CDMA/HDR/Wireless Knowledge nexus between LOR and MSFT, and you have some plausibility. Finally, that volume today is irrefutable: "follow the money" works for stocks and Watergate investigators. It could all be hype, but I for one will hang in because I think the only mistake in investing in LOR was being too early and that I underestimated the insane complexity/difficulty of getting an airborne communications system up and running.
One cannot argue with Valueman: Mr. Schwartz and team are late on lots of things. That is simply a statement of fact. And if it were anybody but Mr. Schwartz, I'd have bailed out a long time ago. But it is Mr. Schwartz, and he's worth making an exception for. Oh man, I hope I don't eat those words.
Regards, Mike Doyle |
